Monthly Archives: July 2017

Play to Your Strengths; Know Your Weaknesses

Play to Your Strengths; Know Your Weaknesses

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In the early stages of AP evolution, much attention is spent learning new things. Many APs are eager to be taught “secret” plays and techniques, and to needlessly complicate plays that they haven’t yet mastered. How many forum posts have you read from novice card counters wondering if they should “upgrade” to a level-two counting system or complex side counts?

This is natural at the early stages, but as you accumulate skill and experience, you’ll find that there’s much more value in recognizing your own strengths and weaknesses, and tailoring your approach to them.

Of course, this gives you the opportunity to improve. If you can count down a six-deck shoe in a minute-twenty but you can’t recall the correct index for A8 vs. 4, then you know what you need to work on.

More importantly, knowing and being honest about your weaknesses helps to keep you from getting into marginal spots that can prove to be very costly. You’ve heard the expression that someone knows just enough about something to get into trouble. This applies extra to APs!

No matter how strong you think your game is, mistakes can prove to be a massive problem. An overestimation of your own skills will produce mistakes, which typically both lower your edge and increase your variance—two things we work very hard to avoid in most cases.

A lot of this comes down to ego. I see it especially in cases involving team play, where one player wants to impress the other with their apparent skill, but it’s also common amongst ambitious solo players, many of whom seem to be perpetually “below EV.”

If you think you have something to prove to yourself or to others, I’d suggest re-evaluating your objectives. The most impressive APs, in my opinion, are the ones who have gone in and got the money, over and over again, no matter how simple the means. They don’t need to put on a show because that’s not what they’re in business to do.

It’s neat hearing about unusual, niche plays that are completely outside the box, but these don’t always correlate with long-term success. In fact, some of the more obscure plays I’ve learned about came courtesy of players who also have a tendency to get in over their heads, playing under conditions that even more skilled players would pass on, and perpetually overbetting in high-variance, low-edge situations.

These guys fancy themselves to be really high-end APs: always on top of new plays, and always mixed up in stuff that seems brilliant on the surface. But their determination to outdo themselves is dangerous, and their willingness to gamble in marginal spots can be a liability if they work as part of a team.

If you know your weaknesses and are honest with yourself, you can avoid these kind of problems. But there’s another side to the coin, and that’s playing to your strengths.

It’s tempting to get wrapped up in new, sexy plays, but if you’re really good at a particular play, don’t be afraid to specialize for a bit. Avoiding becoming a one-trick pony is a good idea, but getting involved in a series of plays less valuable than the one you specialize in just because you feel compelled to diversify is generally not good policy.

Having bread-and-butter plays that you devote the majority of your time to will make things a lot easier. You can always work on new stuff, too, but you may find it more reasonable to spend 20% of your time on it, instead of 50%. Don’t give up too much value just because you’re afraid of specializing.

Prioritize the stuff you’re good at, and work on your weaknesses in your downtime, not at the tables. The money will be steadier, the work less stressful, and the end result a more solid AP foundation. As in many other ventures in life, checking your ego at the door will pay off in the long run.

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Blake Phillips is a professional advantage player and contributing editor to AP Street. Contact him at bp@apstreet.com

Manipulating Game Speed

Manipulating Game Speed

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Quick: you have an option to play a game with a 20% edge or one with a 2% edge? Which do you choose?

Naturally, the answer is the default AP-related one: it depends. In this case, factors may include table maximum and variance, but one factor that gets overlooked all too often is game speed.

With nearly any form of advantage play, game speed is an incredibly important variable. When you have an edge, you want as many repeated trials as possible; when you are playing against a house edge, you want as few trials as possible. More rounds per session also means a shorter time needed to get into the “long run.” Many APs understand this, but few put the effort into making this information as useful as possible, resulting in diminished EV, even if the overall edge and result is still positive.

It doesn’t matter if you’re counting cards, playing hole cards, grinding on a video poker machine, or playing a generous promotion—the faster you play, the more rounds you get in, the more your win rate increases, the faster you get to the “long run,” and the more you skew the ratio of getting the work in to time being observed by interested casino personnel.

The inverse is a situation where you are playing against a house edge—comp hustling or playing for cover, for example—and you want to give up the least amount of EV possible. You’ll need to be a little creative to make this happen without being completely obvious. This also applies to you, hole card players who leave the table the second a relief dealer shows up (or drop to 10% of your normal bet, as if no one can tell the difference).

There are myriad reasons why one would want to manipulate game speed, so instead, I’m going to focus on some ideas to actually do it. As I said before, get creative!

Speed it up:

  • Whenever feasible, play heads-up, or displace civilians at a table with skilled players, even if their only purpose is to play fast.
  • Keep conversation to a minimum. If you’re counting, you may want to keep this consistent during shuffles, too; talking only during shuffles can make your gameplay look even more methodical and focused.
  • Manage buy-ins efficiently. Limit the number of times you need to buy-in or color up. Monitor the chips in the tray to know when a particular denomination is running low and strategically time your color-ups. Most casinos can change 25 bills without having to break the process into multiple steps—buying in for $3k typically takes more time than $2.5k.
  • If you order drinks, have your money ready to hand to the server before they arrive.
  • In select cases, consider giving up extra EV on unimportant hands in order to boost game speed on others. In one recent session, my partner played significantly sub-optimally in order to speed up gameplay, as the edge on my spot was tremendous and easily made up for any EV lost on his spot.
  • This one goes without saying, but practice! Even one additional hand per hour adds up over the course of a year, and the EV gained can be significant.

Slow it down:

  • Play at full tables, especially ones with a party vibe. The more time spent joking around and high-fiving, the less time spent playing.
  • Engage both dealers and players in conversation. Either party may get annoyed if you’re wrapped up in conversation with the other; if they’re all talking, it’ll go much more smoothly.
  • Manage buy-ins inefficiently! Buy in for small amounts, frequently. Color up or break down chips. Use a mixture of bill denominations in your transactions, preferably flipped in different directions. Have a partner come in and buy in for $100 in singles. My apologies to the dealers.
  • Order drinks, but never have your cash ready, and be very indecisive when ordering. What kind of beer does the bar stock? Are those bottles, or draft? Always tip your server, but feel free to chuck in an extra dollar if you’ve been especially difficult. This won’t slow the game any more, but it’s the nice thing to do.
  • Request a comp, if you’re playing rated. You may need a recommendation on where to eat. The dealer can always deal you out while you discuss this with the boss.

None of these are especially groundbreaking, but they should give you a starting point on game speed manipulation. The important thing is to be aware of just how significant game speed is relative to your results. You can still have a nice edge without putting much effort into this, but you’ll absolutely be leaving money on the table. Over the course of weeks, months, years, and careers, this money can add up to huge sums! Start thinking about game speed now and you’ll be happy you did later.

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Blake Phillips is a professional advantage player and contributing editor to AP Street. Contact him at bp@apstreet.com

Dealing With Toke Hustlers

Dealing With Toke Hustlers

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Some casinos are very poorly run. It’s no coincidence that I play in a lot of these casinos. It’s also not a coincidence that degenerates who angle shoot by “helping” people win for a tip also play in a lot of these places.

I’m usually the biggest action in these types of places, so I encounter these people on a fairly regular basis. They like to watch others gamble because if these gamblers win big, they may be able to hustle a tip from them. They are sick gamblers and are just looking for money to get their gambling fix because they already lost.

It’s sad that these people even exist, but they do. If you play professionally, or for high stakes in general, you’ll encounter these degenerate gamblers. I call them “degens” for short. Degens are not to be confused with the attractive female toke hustlers found in more upscale casinos in Las Vegas, which are a whole other topic that I’ll cover another time. For now, I’m talking solely about people who are casino regulars who have lost all their money and are desperate to play. They have probably been tipped many times before by other gamblers. They are desperate, and they are addicted.  

I believe the degen situation is much more of a pain to deal with on any type of machine game, as opposed to table games. This is because you’re not playing with other players, or a pit crew, or a dealer. You may not want anyone in the casino to know how much you’re up, what you’re betting, or what you’re doing, so the presence of degens playing the role of your friend in order to extract tips is a problem. Immediately stopping any back-and-forth with these types is key in all situations, but it is especially so in solo situations. 

Let’s say you’re jamming away on Kitty Glitter for a slot promo because it’s a great play that day and you like cats. The machine has a lot of credits on it, and this has attracted the attention of the degen. 

Typical scenario:

Degen: “hey there, mind if I watch?”

You: “Yes, I do. I’m losing my ass here and I need to concentrate. I can’t seem to line up the three calicos. Please don’t bother me.”

Don’t even look at them and try to sound as irritated as possible. This may or may not work to get rid of this person but it’s far better than the worst thing you can do, which is to engage them. A firm but non-aggressive “no” is mandatory. A follow-up explanation may not be necessary, but it usually won’t hurt. 

Why not just tell this person to go beg somewhere else and leave you F alone? That may also work, but when I’m in a casino I want to go undetected. I don’t want any attention, I don’t want a scene. These degens are sick, desperate, and unstable individuals with nothing to lose. They likely gambled all of their money away and are desperate for a few more bucks to play their favorite game. There’s no telling what they might do if you get overly confrontational with them. 

If a firm “no” and subsequent cold shoulder doesn’t work, I suggest cashing out and going to a different part of the casino. Or, if you need to play a particular machine or bank of machines, take a break for a bit and come back, and they will have likely moved on. If leaving is not an option, reiterate that you don’t want to be bothered. Blaming losses on the degen is another option (“You’re really unlucky—I’ve been losing ever since you came around. Please leave.”).

On table games, the same rules apply. Don’t engage degens, don’t allow them to sit in an empty seat next to you, and if asked about observing, say something like, “no, I don’t like being watched, and I need to focus—please don’t interrupt me.” If that doesn’t work, even a poorly-run casino’s pit boss will likely intervene if someone not playing is harassing the big action on the floor. Feel free to ask a pit boss to put a stop to it. 

Casinos are interesting places. They’re where I make my living, but they’re also where a lot of seedy people hang out and/or make a living. Unwanted interactions with these types is a bit of an occupational hazard. Having a plan to deal with these interactions is key to not letting someone ruin your play or cost you money due to their own gambling addiction. 

Notes From a Significant Other

Notes From a Significant Other

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This guest post comes courtesy of Kilo, wife of a full-time advantage player (and no slouch at the tables herself)

My husband is a professional gambler, which is an obscure career choice to explain to people at parties and social events.  Most people don’t understand gambling. Most people are convinced of the idea that gambling is a quick way to lose your house and life savings. So, when I explain to people that my husband’s sole source of income comes from advantage play, I often feel like a social pariah.

Being in a relationship with a professional AP may be difficult for some. The travel, the uncertainty, the monetary swings, the odd hours, and the casino environment may be deal breakers. My husband travels out of state two to three times a month in search of new AP opportunities. Many traditional professions require travel, but AP travel is different in the sense that it may be impromptu and less structured than, for example, a planned trip to a convention.

Being the introvert that I am, I enjoy the alone time as much as I enjoy his company. I realize that travel is a necessary component of his profession that allows him the income and lifestyle that we enjoy together. His absence has not affected me adversely, however the situation may be different if our family dynamics were to change. He enjoys being an AP—the distance apart is a small price to pay for his happiness and fulfillment. I know he’d do the same for me.

If I summed up the most important concept for a successful relationship with an AP, it would have to trust. Trust, of course, is the foundation for any healthy relationship, but this is especially paramount in a relationship where one member lives such an esoteric lifestyle.

I have a mathematical background, so I understand the monetary value of a player’s edge. I understand the uncertainty of individual results, and the concept of “making money” in the long run. My husband has done an excellent job at explaining the advantage he has over the house, what a particular play is worth given the constraints, and statistically how likely the results will be. His favorite phrase is “trust the math.” 

But what if you don’t understand the math? Some skepticism is good. I’ve come to realize that many APs overestimate their edge—walking a fine line between advantage and disadvantage—especially with plays yielding lower edges and higher variance. This understanding is often even more limited for their significant other. This is where trust becomes key. If I didn’t understand the math behind what my husband was doing, I’d have to rely on his judgement. How are his financial management skills? Is he impulsive? Does he take big risks? These questions should be considered in any serious partnership. 

When you think about it, many of the elements of an AP career overlap with that of a more traditional lifestyle. Being married to an AP is akin to being in a relationship with anyone ambitious and serious about their career. We live a stable, relaxing, and fulfilling life, which is partially made possible by his choice to pursue such an unconventional line of work.

A Trip Report

A Trip Report

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I gamble against casinos for a living. This means I make paychecks from places that never hired me. Instead, most of them want to fire me permanently and ban me from ever setting foot in their building again. It’s kind of funny to think about it that way, but that’s essentially how it is. I am forcing places to provide me employment unwillingly. 

I wrote the following trip report nine months ago while “on the job.”

Sept 9 2016

I left my house at 10am after three nights back home from my last trip (a Labor Day weekend trip with one other player in which we earned $20k in estimated EV. Our actual results were about breakeven after expenses.). I had an 11:40am flight with a team member, who I will call C. We met two other players on site: S and L. After a four-hour flight, I landed, got a rental car, drove a couple hours, and by 7:30pm Pacific I was in a casino 2000 miles from my house. I found a nice opportunity right away but decided that the edge was only about 1-2%. I knew there were better opportunities in the area and wanted to pick my spots wisely, so I decided to pass and instead discuss the game plan for the next couple days with my trip team members at a crappy local bar within walking distance from our accommodations.

I say trip team members since I don’t work with a team on a regular basis. I never have—instead I have a handful of people I work with, some more than others. It really varies depending on what is needed for the particular play, game limits, availability, how heated up anyone is at the casino or region in question, and a couple other factors. So instead of playing this shift, it was a couple beers, some bar top trivia, and a plan to split up the next morning and start scouting around 11am.

Sept 10

There are a handful of casinos in this region so we split up, having three different rental cars between us. C ended up empty handed; L and S were still looking around. I found a great opportunity in which we could do exactly what we came to the region for: high-EV play that requires all four of us to play together.  This play is very hard for casinos to pick off.

Last time I played this casino (an unsophisticated low-roller dump) we had a good result (around +20 units of two hands of the table max) and although the casino was definitely not happy they had no idea what was going on and we left unscathed. The group I played with last time had a great act, which helps a good deal at these places.

The current group also had a good act to go with our skills, so I liked our chances of pulling it off. However, I didn’t like our chances of getting four seats during such a busy weekend—this was the lowest minimum game in the casino with relatively few hands dealt per hour, so people take a lot longer to tap out. Plus, the limit wasn’t as high as we remembered.

Luckily, in the meantime, L found a ridiculous procedural error that was too good to pass up, about an hour up the road. Right as I was weighing my options he called me and gave me the scoop. We came up with a course of action and I relayed it to our BP for this trip, S. We were a little skeptical that this would still be going on even by the time S got there as it seemed ridiculous the casino would allow such a thing to go unnoticed, but it did.

By 3pm, L and S were in action earning roughly $4-5k an hour in EV for our four-person team while C and I were off until swing shift. The session was uneventful heat-wise and had swings from +$14k to -$7k, with them ending at -$2.5k for roughly $20k in EV. I was happiest about the fact that they were able to get the action in and the casino seemed to accept our BP as some guy who happened to be passing through BFE with a pocket full of money, along with the fact that no one seemed to notice the error that allowed for the opportunity in the first place.

We decided to leave the BP there and send C over to switch things up on swing shift. In the meantime, I would look for a few things L and I could do together in the other casinos of the region. Unfortunately, I once again came up short aside from some marginal edges that we sampled and passed on.

C and S got to work on swing shift, exploiting the same procedural error that popped up on day shift. They noticed another crew lurking around as well, but luckily they weren’t interested in what we were doing, so C and S had the game to themselves. I heard later that the other crew were wondering what we were doing and questioned if we had an edge, which is good news to me.

C and S were both feeling the heat on swing shift with S getting his own personal pit boss as well as multiple “we know what you’re doing, if you’re doing anything” stares. Nothing serious happened, so they decided to play through the heat. The edge wasn’t as high as earlier in the day due to a couple of factors, but by the time they quit they had picked up another $5k or so in EV and $6.5k in actual money. With the money lost during day shift and an additional $1.5k lost by L and I during our swing shift scouting earlier in the evening, we were ahead $2.5k for the trip. We hadn’t even covered trip costs yet and were about 20 G’s below EV. Time to sleep.

Sept 11

New plan. We had a strong suspicion that the error from yesterday would still be around today, as this casino was not paying close attention and likely wouldn’t fix it. The game we wanted opened at noon, so I woke up and got to the casino around 11am (early for me in this time zone) to grab some coffee, game plan, and make sure the game was still on. C, L, and S would sleep in a little, with C and L scouting the other casinos and S coming to me once I verified that everything was going according to plan.

We were definitely in business, so I took a seat. All was good except for one small yet important detail: a group of four friends were occupying all the seats at the table except mine! Although I was ready for S to come in and start making some money, he couldn’t get a seat. These guys and girls were up for their morning/afternoon beers and really wanted to play this game. Not only did they want to play, but they wanted to play incredibly slow.

Finally, a couple of them tapped out. S came in and we got in about 1.5 hours of super slow play, winning $2k with maybe $5k in EV earned. I lost around $1200 just signaling and betting 1/10 of what S was betting before a pit boss finally noticed the error and put a stop to it. They didn’t do anything to us as they didn’t put us together and weren’t even sure we were taking advantage of the error in the first place.

S got a buffet comp, I lost my remaining chips on the table by going “all in” and losing, so I left to go scout the other casinos for swing shift. Nothing was worth playing on swing, I lost some more money scouting, and we ended the trip that night -$640 for the team after trip costs. After a handful of small scouting losses, the actual table win was $2340, and our EV estimate was around $30k.

I personally earned roughly $17,500 in EV In the last 10 days for a net loss of a few hundred bucks due to trip costs. Tough way to make a living.