Articles of Interest

Manipulating Game Speed

Manipulating Game Speed

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Quick: you have an option to play a game with a 20% edge or one with a 2% edge? Which do you choose?

Naturally, the answer is the default AP-related one: it depends. In this case, factors may include table maximum and variance, but one factor that gets overlooked all too often is game speed.

With nearly any form of advantage play, game speed is an incredibly important variable. When you have an edge, you want as many repeated trials as possible; when you are playing against a house edge, you want as few trials as possible. More rounds per session also means a shorter time needed to get into the “long run.” Many APs understand this, but few put the effort into making this information as useful as possible, resulting in diminished EV, even if the overall edge and result is still positive.

It doesn’t matter if you’re counting cards, playing hole cards, grinding on a video poker machine, or playing a generous promotion—the faster you play, the more rounds you get in, the more your win rate increases, the faster you get to the “long run,” and the more you skew the ratio of getting the work in to time being observed by interested casino personnel.

The inverse is a situation where you are playing against a house edge—comp hustling or playing for cover, for example—and you want to give up the least amount of EV possible. You’ll need to be a little creative to make this happen without being completely obvious. This also applies to you, hole card players who leave the table the second a relief dealer shows up (or drop to 10% of your normal bet, as if no one can tell the difference).

There are myriad reasons why one would want to manipulate game speed, so instead, I’m going to focus on some ideas to actually do it. As I said before, get creative!

Speed it up:

  • Whenever feasible, play heads-up, or displace civilians at a table with skilled players, even if their only purpose is to play fast.
  • Keep conversation to a minimum. If you’re counting, you may want to keep this consistent during shuffles, too; talking only during shuffles can make your gameplay look even more methodical and focused.
  • Manage buy-ins efficiently. Limit the number of times you need to buy-in or color up. Monitor the chips in the tray to know when a particular denomination is running low and strategically time your color-ups. Most casinos can change 25 bills without having to break the process into multiple steps—buying in for $3k typically takes more time than $2.5k.
  • If you order drinks, have your money ready to hand to the server before they arrive.
  • In select cases, consider giving up extra EV on unimportant hands in order to boost game speed on others. In one recent session, my partner played significantly sub-optimally in order to speed up gameplay, as the edge on my spot was tremendous and easily made up for any EV lost on his spot.
  • This one goes without saying, but practice! Even one additional hand per hour adds up over the course of a year, and the EV gained can be significant.

Slow it down:

  • Play at full tables, especially ones with a party vibe. The more time spent joking around and high-fiving, the less time spent playing.
  • Engage both dealers and players in conversation. Either party may get annoyed if you’re wrapped up in conversation with the other; if they’re all talking, it’ll go much more smoothly.
  • Manage buy-ins inefficiently! Buy in for small amounts, frequently. Color up or break down chips. Use a mixture of bill denominations in your transactions, preferably flipped in different directions. Have a partner come in and buy in for $100 in singles. My apologies to the dealers.
  • Order drinks, but never have your cash ready, and be very indecisive when ordering. What kind of beer does the bar stock? Are those bottles, or draft? Always tip your server, but feel free to chuck in an extra dollar if you’ve been especially difficult. This won’t slow the game any more, but it’s the nice thing to do.
  • Request a comp, if you’re playing rated. You may need a recommendation on where to eat. The dealer can always deal you out while you discuss this with the boss.

None of these are especially groundbreaking, but they should give you a starting point on game speed manipulation. The important thing is to be aware of just how significant game speed is relative to your results. You can still have a nice edge without putting much effort into this, but you’ll absolutely be leaving money on the table. Over the course of weeks, months, years, and careers, this money can add up to huge sums! Start thinking about game speed now and you’ll be happy you did later.

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Blake Phillips is a professional advantage player and contributing editor to AP Street. Contact him at bp@apstreet.com

Notes From a Significant Other

Notes From a Significant Other

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This guest post comes courtesy of Kilo, wife of a full-time advantage player (and no slouch at the tables herself)

My husband is a professional gambler, which is an obscure career choice to explain to people at parties and social events.  Most people don’t understand gambling. Most people are convinced of the idea that gambling is a quick way to lose your house and life savings. So, when I explain to people that my husband’s sole source of income comes from advantage play, I often feel like a social pariah.

Being in a relationship with a professional AP may be difficult for some. The travel, the uncertainty, the monetary swings, the odd hours, and the casino environment may be deal breakers. My husband travels out of state two to three times a month in search of new AP opportunities. Many traditional professions require travel, but AP travel is different in the sense that it may be impromptu and less structured than, for example, a planned trip to a convention.

Being the introvert that I am, I enjoy the alone time as much as I enjoy his company. I realize that travel is a necessary component of his profession that allows him the income and lifestyle that we enjoy together. His absence has not affected me adversely, however the situation may be different if our family dynamics were to change. He enjoys being an AP—the distance apart is a small price to pay for his happiness and fulfillment. I know he’d do the same for me.

If I summed up the most important concept for a successful relationship with an AP, it would have to trust. Trust, of course, is the foundation for any healthy relationship, but this is especially paramount in a relationship where one member lives such an esoteric lifestyle.

I have a mathematical background, so I understand the monetary value of a player’s edge. I understand the uncertainty of individual results, and the concept of “making money” in the long run. My husband has done an excellent job at explaining the advantage he has over the house, what a particular play is worth given the constraints, and statistically how likely the results will be. His favorite phrase is “trust the math.” 

But what if you don’t understand the math? Some skepticism is good. I’ve come to realize that many APs overestimate their edge—walking a fine line between advantage and disadvantage—especially with plays yielding lower edges and higher variance. This understanding is often even more limited for their significant other. This is where trust becomes key. If I didn’t understand the math behind what my husband was doing, I’d have to rely on his judgement. How are his financial management skills? Is he impulsive? Does he take big risks? These questions should be considered in any serious partnership. 

When you think about it, many of the elements of an AP career overlap with that of a more traditional lifestyle. Being married to an AP is akin to being in a relationship with anyone ambitious and serious about their career. We live a stable, relaxing, and fulfilling life, which is partially made possible by his choice to pursue such an unconventional line of work.

Planning for Retirement, AP-Style

Planning for Retirement, AP-Style

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The following is a guest contribution by Jack Sparrow, a long-time professional advantage player and friend of AP Street.

First, let’s start with a disclaimer. I am not a tax attorney and this blog should not be construed as professional guidance. I’m just an AP with an eye on the future and I want to share what I’ve found with some fellow APs who may not have thought that far ahead yet.

The intended audience for this post are APs who have gone pro in the eyes of the IRS. That is, you file as a professional gambler with a Schedule C or using an S-corp setup. I’m sure many blogs could be written about the pros and cons of filing as a professional gambler, but for now I’m assuming you file as such and I’m going to focus on one of the stronger benefits: tax-deferred retirement savings.

Advantage play is, by nature, a cash-heavy business. When you combine the desire to build a bigger bankroll with the hassle of dealing with banks and their cash paranoia, many APs end up not putting money “into the system.”  Speaking delicately, some APs may be inclined to under-report income they keep in cash. While avoiding paying a silent partner who freerolls your earnings is tempting, with inflation ever creeping up on you, storing your wealth in straight cash is just not a smart approach. Additionally, an AP career has an uncertain longevity. Even if you never run out of plays, you’ll reach a point where you can no longer subject yourself to the AP life.

Fortunately for the self-employed professional AP, there is a big benefit you can take advantage of in the form of higher contribution limits for Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). As you probably know, the IRS allows you to contribute $5,500 per year to a qualified traditional IRA. However, if you are self-employed you can contribute both the employee and employer share. Your contributions lower your taxable income and the investments grow, tax-deferred, and can be withdrawn starting when you are 59.5 years old. At that time, the withdrawals are taxed at the prevailing rate, but assuming your income is fixed and your expenses are more constant, you should be able to position yourself in control of your tax structure. 

There are two main types of IRA’s for the self-employed. The SEP-IRA (Simplified Employee Pension) and the solo 401k. The SEP-IRA, as the name implies is the more simple to setup and administer of the two. The Solo 401k is, as it sounds, a 401k plan that exists for your sole proprietor business. The Solo 401k (sometimes referred to as an i401k) requires a bit more paperwork but it is nothing that any competent AP couldn’t handle. The main difference between the two is how much you can contribute per year. I’ll be using the 2017 tax year numbers here.

Both options limit your contributions based on total net profit. The SEP-IRA, belying its name, uses a complex calculation to reach that. In the end, the SEP-IRA works out to 18.6% of the business net profits if you are Schedule C and about 25% if you are an S-corp. Meanwhile, the Solo 401k allows you to contribute a salary deferral of up to $18k per year on top of those percentages.

 Now, if you make more than $290k per year, then it doesn’t matter which one you have; you’ll be capped at $54k in total contributions. If you make less than that the Solo 401k will always afford you the ability to contribute more than the SEP-IRA. Let’s use the example of a single Schedule C filer who has a net profit of $100k per year as an AP. 

Maximum Contribution:

No IRA : $0

SEP-IRA : $18,587.05

Solo 401k : $36,587.05

Estimated Tax Liability:

No IRA : -$17,126

SEP-IRA : -$12,479

Solo 401k : -$7,979

If you can afford to contribute the maximum amount, do so. You grow your retirement nest egg while at the same time paying less to Uncle Sam. Furthermore, if you’re married and your partner contributes materially to the business (e.g., they do your accounting for you or book your flights) then congratulations, your contribution limits have doubled!

In our example above, if the AP was married and made a net profit of $100k per year, they could contribute up to $54,587 a year ($18k salary deferral * 2 and the $18,587 employer contribution) and have an estimated tax liability of -$2,759. Of course, there are other complexities to making $100k per year in a volatile gambling business and then socking over half of that away for possibly decades. However, there are many who will see through the details of the numbers to the general benefit of getting money now into the system, tax-deferred, for use at a later date. 

So there you have it. We’ve established that a self-employed AP can lower his tax burden while effectively preparing for a life after the casinos. We didn’t scratch the surface of how to establish a SEP-IRA or Solo 401k though. Also, for the rare AP who files as a professional but still works a “day job” your contributions to an employer’s retirement plan also count against your $54k annual limit. Additionally, there are other investment options that are available when you’re not tied to an employer’s retirement plan. Perhaps those topics can be approached in a future post, but in the meantime please use Google to answer many of your questions or ask them in the comments section below.

My Road to Advantage Play

My Road to Advantage Play

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If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you’re in a similar position to mine years ago. You may have learned to count cards, browse some blackjack forums, and maybe even spread a little at your local casino. But you’ve never taken the plunge into full time play, or moved up to higher stakes that yield a respectable profit. I was in that state for years before I actually became a profitable advantage player, so I thought it might be interesting to share my story with people who are now where I was then. 

I hope you like it. 

Like most APs, I started as a card counter. This was a result of a trip to a card room in Washington when I was 18. I had no idea what blackjack was other than the fact that it had something to do with 21. I lost $60 (likely playing horribly), but I was interested in learning more so I decided to look into winning at blackjack. I came across a website that talked about card counting.

That summer, I was able to learn the hi-lo count fairly quickly, and I had basic strategy down cold, but I never learned anything about EV, ROR, BR requirements, N0, or anything else of that nature. I did learn enough to know that I didn’t have enough money to make it worth my time, though. I would take occasional trips with friends, keeping the count and playing basic, and I would simply bet more than minimum when the count was high, with no defined spread or plan. Unfortunately, I was too green to realize the value of the games I was playing at the time, and I didn’t like the thought of risking the small amount of money I had for a small expected hourly profit, so I never really made any money off of them.

Life went on, and I’m sure I went through stretches of a year or two without even playing blackjack or visiting a casino, as I never had enough of a bankroll to make an acceptable hourly profit and had other priorities at the time. My life went in a different direction, and I started and operated a successful business throughout my 20’s, but I was getting burned out. After a lot of personal debate, and now being at a point where I felt I had enough money to make blackjack advantage play worth my time, I decided to put my business on hold and see if I could actually make some real money playing blackjack.

The thought of walking the Vegas Strip while getting paid, and traveling the world while pulling one over on the casinos was a daydream of mine. I wanted to see if it was possible. I never liked visiting casinos for fun, and I never gambled recreationally; my interest was mainly out of curiosity, boredom, and burn out at work. After years of being tied down with business obligations and girlfriends who wouldn’t understand the travel involved, I found myself single, with a reasonable money cushion, and I had just finished up my last “real job” project, with no plans to take on another. It was time. 

At this point I had never met anyone who played blackjack or other casino games professionally, and, to be honest, I still wasn’t sure if blackjack was beatable because I hadn’t done much studying beyond the basics of counting. Still, I was lucky to have enough money to learn on my own, time to do it, and some great games to choose from nearby. I studied up a lot more. I came up with a bet spread, EV estimate, and a game plan.

Although I could technically afford more, I decided to start with a spread of $25–$200 on some generously-cut double deck games with very good speed and late surrender. I’m sure I made some mistakes along the way, but the games were strong and my spread was decent for the game strength, I would even wong out regularly, so my hourly EV probably wasn’t too bad. Still, after about two months of playing regularly, I was stuck $8000, plus expenses, not to mention the fact that I was out two months of money it took to support my lifestyle, as I had a house payment and other expenses not related to gambling. Nice start!

Starting off losing only motivated me even more. I wasn’t sure if I wanted to continue or if I wanted to go back to my “real job” but I was definitely sure I wasn’t stopping until I at least got my $8000 back, because I wasn’t going out a loser. The game I was playing was better than almost anything else I could find, and it was driving distance from my house. I was determined to make it. That’s when I got backed off of the DD game. I wasn’t technically even backed off (they must have liked me); instead they just told all the dealers to give me horrible cuts. Effectively, that game was dead to me.

Instead of playing the worse games in the Pacific Northwest, I decided to schedule my first AP travel trip. I was still stuck about the same amount and wanted to turn a small profit before throwing in the towel. According to Stanford Wong’s Casino Blackjack Newsletter, most of the games I could afford to play in Vegas were shoe games. At the time there were some decent shoe games in Vegas, even S17 LS tables on the main floors of some casinos. I had plans to wong out during bad counts and wong in on some good counts when I could, but when I crunched the numbers I learned that I needed to spread to two hands, increasing my max bets to 2x$200 to get an hourly rate similar to what I enjoyed on the game I started on.

So I was off to Vegas for 10 days, staying wherever was cheap and playing rated in my real name to get comps to help with expenses (I didn’t know any better at the time). This trip is when I finally turned things around, putting my card counting career results into the black. I was a profitable card counter. I don’t remember exactly how much I won, but it was in the low five-figures (probably $13–14K). The win was way over EV for that trip, but I was hooked. I continued that year counting, slowly upping my max bet as I gained more confidence and experience, including many backoffs along the way.

After a number of trips cut short due to heat, backoffs, and 86’ings, I decided that I needed to make counting a low priority and look into other AP methods. I didn’t know it at the time, but I was already databased due to the mistake of using my real name while counting. I still make many mistakes and will continue to along the way, but I see them as learning experiences. At that time I still hadn’t met another AP, but in my path to find higher EV in less transparent opportunities, I ended up meeting some like-minded players that made AP even more profitable and enjoyable for me. I haven’t looked back since my first trip to Vegas.

I will never forget attending Max Rubin’s Blackjack Ball for the first time last year and winning the Grosjean Cup in a head-to-head counting battle with John Chang, the former head of the infamous M.I.T. blackjack team. It remains the highlight of my career to date and I honestly never thought I would get this far when I started out. I now enjoy freedom to do what I want, have a very understanding and beautiful girlfriend at home, and make a healthy income off of AP. I also have a lot of good friends and associates that I met along the way. For those of you daydreaming, whether it’s about a career as an AP, or something else, my advice is to go for it! You only live once, what’s the worst that can happen?

More on Eavesdropping

More on Eavesdropping

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On my recent Gambling With an Edge appearance, Richard, Bob, and I talked about Blake’s article on eavesdropping. I thought it was an interesting conversation because this is something that I use on a regularly basis. I may hear something coming from the pit crew that I don’t like and decide it’s time to save the play for another day or shift. Or, I may hear something I do like and decide that it’s time to ramp up the aggression. Either way, I find ways to gain value from paying attention.

On a recent trip, a couple of associates and I were playing when we noticed a lot of sudden commotion in the pit. I figured this was likely due to the stack of orange chips we had pocketed, but just to be sure I paid very close attention to find out what the pit crew was talking about.

In this instance, all I could hear was discussion about who had what chips, which wasn’t very useful. They seemed to be quite interested in me, in particular, and not so much so in my partners, so we decided to play on. Long story short, they ended up finding out who I was and now none of us are able to play in that particular region or casino in the near future. If I heard them say something more telling of what was to come, I may have been able to avoid any major fallout by just getting out of their hair.

In other, clearer, instances I’ve actually seen the pit mulling over a picture that was obviously me, so that gave me a pretty clear indication that it was time to go. In one extreme instance, I turned around in my chair and was staring directly at an 8.5×11″ photo of my face as a pit boss rushed into the pit with it to show her pals what she found. No reason to stick around after that.

Leaving before things escalate can sometimes help you avoid collateral damage, which is good. Leaving a great opportunity when you could have kept playing for hours longer without issue, on the other hand, is not good.

Many times I’ve heard pit crew talk about the count, or pretend to count me down, or openly debate as to whether or not I am counting when I am definitely not counting. Or they may be staring at a pic that is obviously not me. In instances like these, I am happy because I know I will easily pass inspection, and they most likely don’t even know who I am.

Recently, I actually was counting cards, when  I heard a pit boss say to another employee: “if he’s counting he’s really bad cause there’s already a lot of aces gone and he raised his bet.” In that instance I decided I might as well stick around for a bit.

Some APs get nervous easily and think any commotion in the pit is about them, causing them to call off plays too early. Eavesdropping helps. Often, the commotion has nothing to do with you. Other times, it may have something to do with you but isn’t play-related, like when your BP approaching the CTR threshold and the casino is worried about missing a buy in.

Maybe there’s someone else in your pit betting big, or getting a marker, or being a drunk idiot, or hitting on a dealer too aggressively, and so on. The bottom line is that it’s not always about you, but sometimes it is, and the more you hear, the better the decisions you’ll make will be.

What’s in it for me?

What’s in it for me?

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For purely selfish reasons, I’ve done as folks like us do, and I’ve made an EV evaluation of contributing to this site.

On one hand, the tips and tricks contained herein would undoubtedly smooth the learning curve for the up-and-comer, allowing newer APs to learn from our mistakes and soak up some of the finer points that have been learned through years of actual casino experience.

On the other hand, one could argue that this blog gives away “trade secrets,” or that it offers more value to lurking casino employees hoping to understand how APs operate than it does to the AP community, and even if the inverse is true, the fact remains that there is a finite amount of money to go around in most forms of AP, and the more successful APs that exist, the less money each one of them can expect to take home personally.

Lose-lose, right?

While I can’t speak for Lee—the creator of AP Street—directly, I know there’s a touch of altruism motivating his creation of the site. We’ve both leaned a lot from the players who have come before us, and there’s a certain sense of duty in doing the same for the next generation of APs.

But on a pragmatic level, it all comes down to whether or not spreading information and sharing insights that aren’t widely published elsewhere is +EV or not.

In the original version of this piece (I re-wrote a big chunk, for reasons that are probably obvious), I took a look at a particular game that was once a goldmine for APs but is now old hat to casino folks and beginner players alike. While this game still provides the occasional opportunity to observant APs, it’s often a poor proposition from an exposure standpoint. Simply put: casinos got wise.

What took this opportunity from goldmine to waste of time? Was it ever-increasing casino awareness? Sure, to some extent. Was it a major increase in the volume of players exploiting this particular opportunity? Yes, absolutely. But, in my opinion, the number one game killer was sloppiness on the part of players.

Poorly-prepared APs are high-exposure. They heat themselves up through sloppiness and a lack of self-awareness, and they heat up the games that they’re spotted on. Even if a casino doesn’t know a play, they’ll be able to pick off a shoddy AP, and now all eyes are on the game that more skilled players may have been quietly profiting from for years.

I’ll give some of these guys the benefit of the doubt. Some players come up on their own, and they don’t have anyone to help them smooth out their rough edges. They may have absolutely no idea that their play is riddled with red flags.

Writing about stuff that most APs avoid talking about openly is a tough call, but if it helps stop casino-smartening behaviors before they start, then it’s almost certainly a good thing. Weak APs being weeded out as a form of natural selection may seem good for the bottom line, but if those APs wise up an entire casino to a particular sensitivity in the process, then there’s more potential money disappearing than they were going to take in the first place.

So, part of my motivation is giving back to the community that’s given freely to me. But I won’t pretend that there’s nothing in it for me, either. Better APs, longer-lasting opportunities. I may be idealistic, but I can think of a few opportunities that have dried up that might still be around if the people responsible for drying them up had read some of the tips on this site beforehand. That’s why this stuff is important, and that’s what’s in it for me.

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Blake Phillips is a professional advantage player and contributing editor to AP Street. Contact him at bp@apstreet.com

Staying Connected While Abroad

Staying Connected While Abroad

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Over the past couple of months, I’ve left the country twice for work. Being without internet and phone is not an option for me, so I’m forced to plan ahead in these situations; otherwise, I’ll rack up a huge phone bill due to roaming.

During these trips abroad, I’ve used two different methods for maintaining internet and phone service, both of which had their own pros and cons.

The first option was pocket wifi. These are pretty popular, and they’re commonly available at major international airports. I prepaid for mine online for a period of one week.

The cost for this weekly pocket wifi rental was about $100 and it would be delivered to my upon landing by a company rep. I used the free airport wifi and WhatsApp—a useful app for international travel—to text the rep when I landed to set up the rendezvous.

This process was simple, the device was easy to use, and the internet speed was decent. My partner and I both used it throughout the trip and we had no serious complaints. I left my phone in airplane mode during the entire trip and made calls and texts using phone apps.

The only downside was the device’s battery life. The pocket wifi had to be constantly charged, so much so that the company supplied a portable battery backup with it. Carrying around a pocket wifi, a battery backup, and a wall charger ended up being pretty bulky, forcing me to carry a bag around.

The second option I used is only possible if you have an “unlocked” phone. If you do, you can simply go to any local phone store and buy a SIM card to use while you’re in the area.

In my case, my phone was not unlocked, as my provider was very slow in processing the request. Luckily, a friend I was traveling with had an extra phone to use, so this ended up being very easy. We just set up a mobile hotspot on his spare phone using the local SIM card, and I was able to hook my locked phone up to the hotspot.

The cost for this was around $45 for 3GB of data. I had about 1GB left after eight days of using it for most of my internet needs, so it was a good value. If you don’t want to, or can’t, unlock your phone, you could always unlock an old phone and use it as a mobile hotspot.

The benefits to using a SIM card over pocket wifi are potential longer battery life, and a lightening of your load. Plus, it’s usually a little cheaper. If you have multiple people using the same hotspot, however, I’m not sure how long the data would last, which could drive up the cost.

Another downside is that you might have to roam in order to use your phone for directions on your way to get set up with a new SIM card. It helps if you can find a phone store without having to do so.

Both of these are viable options for international travel, and which one I use in the future will likely depend on where I’m traveling to.